The September Secret Every Crypto Trader Needs To Know
- Spot Socials
- Sep 1
- 7 min read
Written by Jason Krutzky, Chartered Meme Technician at Spot Trading.
Another month is in the books, and things are looking pretty darn spicy out there. This time last week, it seemed as though J.Pow's words had helped to instill some confidence in the markets, and I suggested that perhaps it was the start of alt season.
The action at the beginning of this week seemed to mostly confirm that idea. BTC continued to sell, ETH was trading just below all-time highs, and SOL was finally starting to catch a bid. Everything was going relatively according to plan until Friday...
In other news:
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The power of conviction
Ancient BTC whales are moving to ETH
With August in the history books, there's a lot of talk floating around the internet about seasonal weakness and the 'Ghost Month'.
While I tend not to pay a ton of attention to things like this, sometimes they can become self-fulfilling prophecies.
So this week, I'm sharing the September secret every crypto trader needs to know - the actual historical data on how markets perform this month. Let's dig into the monthly charts, seasonality stats, and key news items of the week.
Majors On The Move
$BTC (-6.48%)
Two weeks back, I pointed to a pattern that we've seen occur at every major top in BTC since 2021. At that time, I suggested it might be time to lighten your position if you had one that was deeply in profit.
I am once again telling you the same thing and pointing to the same basic pattern, but now on the monthly chart.
In April 2021, we had a high sweep failure that resulted in a 56% drawdown in 3 months. In November 2021, we had a high sweep failure that resulted in a 52% drawdown in 3 months. In January 2025, we had a high sweep failure that resulted in a drawdown of 32% in 3 months.
Now, in August 2025, we have yet another high sweep failure.
Whether it results in a drawdown the likes of which we've seen in previous times is hard to say. Perhaps this time really will be different.
But if alt season is here and BTC continues to lose market share to the smaller names, it would not be unprecedented for a notable decline to come over the next two months.
$ETH (+18.78%)
Last week, when ETH was tagging new ATHs, I suggested that the last thing I wanted to see was a quick sweep of those highs and then a failure.
While it had certainly come a long way off the yearly lows, I was hoping that price could quickly flip the previous all-time highs from resistance into support.
Unfortunately, however, it did exactly the thing I didn't want it to do. It made a new high and failed. Bummer.
Alas, all hope is not lost. It still looks like it's going to close the month conservatively, and I think the $4k area is key. As long as that's not lost, I think there's not too much to worry about.
Below $4k, I think $3.7k comes pretty quickly, but we'll just have to monitor it closely here.
If we do get a proper alt season in year-end, then you have to assume there's still plenty of gas in the tank for ETH.
$SOL (+16.50%)
SOL has been frustrating to hold this year, despite my long-term bullishness.
It's lagged and lagged as BTC and ETH have ripped higher.
It does appear, however, that the tide is beginning to turn.If you read my note last week, you know how important the $188 level is. A close above that this month is a big signal, in my opinion, and I think it sets up a move to test the 'final boss' level at $242.
Above that, it's a clear blue sky, and I think the thing that really sends it is the narrative.
Remember when it was a joke to own ETH at $1500 earlier this year? SOL has been given the same negative press treatment lately, so be on the lookout for the narrative flip. It's already starting to happen quietly.
The September Secret That Every Crypto Trader Needs To Know
With everyone freaking out about September weakness, I thought it'd be a good idea to actually look at the data. Let's dig in.
Looking back, BTC really does perform poorly this time of the year. Since 2014, September has been green just 40% of the time. Worse yet, the average return in September is an abysmal -2.51%.
I guess the silver lining is that we should expect a nice recovery in October, as it offers both the highest chance of a green month (90% chance) and a whopping 20.44% average return.
Based on the past few months of performance on ETH, I'm not sure how much weight we can give to seasonality, but if history is any indication, then we should expect only a 44% chance of a green month in September.
Unfortunately, the average return in September is also quite negative, coming in at -6.74%. Even with that kind of drawdown, with the way ETH closed in August, it does still keep us above the key $4k level.
While SOL has the least amount of historical data of the bunch, the numbers certainly look a lot better here than the other two: A 100% win rate with an average return of over 14%.
Note, also, that the average return kicks it up another notch in October, to nearly a 33% gain.
Chart Of The Week
You'd be hard-pressed to find a better-looking chart than $USDUC right now.
It's been through the ringer over the past few months, with multiple 50-70% drawdowns, but it has ultimately continued to surge higher.
To be fair, the name did tell you to expect this kind of action!
That green moving average on the chart is the Anchored VWAP from launch. Notice how powerful it's been? All you ever had to do was buy the pullbacks to it. Every single time, they've worked like a charm. If you're not yet using Anchored VWAPs in your analysis, what are you waiting for?
WTF Is America.Fun?
One of the most interesting things about the memecoin space is that, oftentimes, alpha is given out in plain view. Sure, you have to sometimes read between the lines, but that's half the fun. If you can solve the puzzle before the proper news hits, you can be rewarded handsomely.
Here's the mystery: We've had our eyes on $AOL for a few weeks now, as it has been slowly bidding higher with very little in the way of pullbacks.
I've not thought too much about the action. Just another memecoin that's gaining traction.
But then, on Friday, the AOL X account officially announced a rebrand to 'America.Fun', a new token launchpad to be 'powered by AOL'.
The news sent the token soaring, gaining as much as 120% and racking up more volume than it has seen since the day it launched.
But there appears to be quite more to the story...
The arrival of new entrants to The Launchpad Wars is something I've come to expect. There will be many launchpads in the future.
But the way that this particular project was announced, and the things that the account is pointing to, have me speculating.
Most notably, $AOL's America.Fun announcement seems to coincide directly with Bonk.Fun's announcement of what appears to be a partnership with WLFI.
America.Fun's X account also spent most of the afternoon on Friday retweeting various accounts (including WLFI insiders) that were promoting the alleged Bonk x WLFI announcement.
This leads me to wonder...
Why on earth would a new token launchpad be so keen to promote Bonk.Fun, or any other launchpad for that matter, on the day they launch? That makes absolutely zero sense, unless they're all connected.
Here are the questions I'm asking:
What if America.Fun is actually working with WLFI, too? What if it's meant to serve as the memecoin launchpad for WLFI? And what if it's built on Graphite Protocol rails?
I've long theorized that Graphite Protocol's architecture (what Bonk.Fun is built on) could be repurposed by other brands. This is an assumed value prop that could drive additional $GP revenues outside of the direct Bonk ecosystem.
If that's what's happening here, imagine a world where the Trump family starts promoting America.Fun as the 'American' place to launch memecoins.
It sounds absolutely bat shit insane, which is why I'm giving the idea credence.
Jupiter Announces Jupiter Lend
Jupiter just dropped Jupiter Lend in public beta, and it's worth paying attention to.
They partnered with 0xfluid (7 years building money markets on Ethereum) to bring better lending to Solana.
The key innovation here is that they're promising way higher LTVs with up to 100x lower liquidation penalties. That's a big deal if it works - getting liquidated in DeFi is brutal, and anything that reduces that pain while letting you borrow more is interesting.
They're also doing automated yield routing, so you don't have to constantly chase APYs across different pools. Your funds just automatically go where the returns are best.
The real test will be how this holds up in volatile markets, but Jupiter has been solid so far. Worth watching if you're into Solana DeFi.
For more on this exciting new tek, read the full thread here.
Numerai Bags $500 JPMorgan Partnership
$NMR (Numerai) just landed a huge deal with JPMorgan Asset Management, which has committed to invest up to $500 million over the next year, potentially doubling Numerai's AUM to nearly $1 billion.
Not familiar with Numerai? I gotchu.
Numerai isn't your normal quant fund. Instead of hiring traditional analysts, they've built a system where data scientists from around the world compete to submit the best stock-picking algorithms.
These contributors get paid in Numerai's native token, $NMR, and have to "stake" their tokens on their predictions - so they only make money if they're actually right.
Numerai then takes all these predictions and combines them into its investment strategy. Pretty wild...
The reason JPM is interested is that the strategy is actually working. The fund is up this year by 25% with 15 straight months of gains. Pretty impressive numbers for a fund that uses AI and crowdsourcing.
HMU if you have any questions, have a killer trade idea, or just want to talk shop. I'm always available at jasonk@spot.dog
