Monthly Analysis On The Majors & More
- Spot Socials
- Aug 3
- 6 min read
Written by Jason Krutzky, Chartered Meme Technician at Spot Trading.
Last week, I mentioned that we were at a pretty critical juncture for all of crypto. I expected BTC and ETH might stall out a bit, and that SOL could step up as the leader.
So far, that’s mostly played out, at least two out of three. But I’ll admit, the move we’ve seen in SOL has been the complete opposite of what I expected, and I'm a bit shaken by it.
Whether this is just a leverage flush or something deeper is tough to say. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least a little uneasy with the price action over the past few days.
I’ll break it all down below — but first, some quick news:
An update on The Launchpad Wars
Using ancient math to trade memecoins
There is an 80% chance of a rate cut in September
What's going on with Bonk memes?
Adam Tehc's Favorite Dune dashboards
Some are saying the top is in. Others are saying this is the last big dip before the rip. Let's take a look across the markets and see what's actually happening.
Monthly Analysis On The Majors
If you’re trading the markets regularly, like I am, it’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. That’s why I always recommend zooming out and doing a monthly analysis on the majors whenever a new candle prints. It gives you a kind of perspective you just won’t get staring at 5-minute charts all day.
Let’s dive in.
$BTC (+8.01%)
Bitcoin closed July a little over 8% higher than June, after gaining as much as 15% during the sultry summer month. Most notably, the 2.000 Fib extension — measured from the 2021 high to the 2022 bear market low — acted as near picture-perfect resistance, capping last month’s high.
So, where do we go from here? Longer term, I still think the path of least resistance is up. But when I look for potential bounce spots lower, two levels stand out:
First, the imbalance around June’s high near 110.6k. And second, the Anchored VWAP from April’s monthly candle, which currently sits around 102k.
$ETH (+48.74%)
Ethereum had a monster month in July — up as much as 58.5% before closing more than 48% above June’s close. Unreal strength from an asset that was written off as 'not worth owning' earlier in the year.
A little selling here after that kind of move isn’t exactly surprising. And like I mentioned last week, I’d prefer to see it fail to take the infamous $4K level right away. Better to chop and consolidate below those highs for a bit — that way, when it does break through, it can do so with conviction.
On the downside, there’s a monthly imbalance around $2.9K that could easily fill without being all that bearish, in my view. Below that, the Anchored VWAP from the April lows sits around $2.4K — though I don’t expect we’ll see that tested this month.
$SOL (+11.20%)
Despite closing July up over 11%, this is where my real concern lies — with Solana. Last week, I said it needed to finish the month above June’s highs at $168. Technically, it did… but just barely. And since then, it’s been sliding.
If we’re going to see a true alt season, Solana has to be part of it. But to stay in the mix, it needs to reclaim the Anchored VWAP from the all-time high, at $168, and the 50% mark of July’s candle, right around $176.
Below those two key spots, it risks fading back to July’s lows near $145. And if that happens, I genuinely don’t know what it means for alts — especially memes. Probably nothing good.
Maybe smart money was levered into SOL, expecting it to quickly follow ETH and BTC. Maybe this flush is the big, scary move before a giga-reversal. That’s what I’m hoping for.
But again, $168 and then $176 are the lines in the sand. I’d like to see them reclaimed, and soon.
Chart Of The Week
$TROLL
When $URANUS ripped 500% in two days last week, it was hard not to expect some sympathy plays — coins that could catch a similar bid simply because they had the same chart setup. Traders scanned the market, and they landed on $TROLL.
Pretty much the moment $URANUS topped and started to sell off, it felt like that money rotated straight into $TROLL. The chart was nearly identical, making it an obvious contender for a sympathy play. I even noted this idea on my X feed as the move was starting.
Since then, $TROLL has surged as much as 422% and is now approaching the 2.5 Fibonacci extension measured from the May high to low. An incredible rally, no doubt.
New Memes We Think Are Funny
As I always say, for a meme to be successful, before any bundles, buybacks, or support from KOLs, it first has to be relatable, funny, and irreverent.
Here are a few names I found this week that made me LOL.
This meme is about as stupid as it gets, and perhaps that's why it made me laugh. 'Don't buy shares, buy chairs.' Whether the coin will work or not, I have no idea, but the team is certainly being pretty creative with their marketing endeavors.
News broke yesterday that Elon Musk's xAI had registered a US trademark for the word 'Macrohard'. While we don't yet know what this will be used for, it's hard not to think the coin could become more relevant as time goes on.
It was nearly impossible to avoid the videos from the WNBA this weekend, and while I initially assumed that the coin sprang up because of the events, instead, it seems the events are springing up because of the coin. Hell of a marketing stunt, tbh. Careful which coin you buy, though, as there are a few across different chains. The strongest one appears to be on ETH.
SEC Announces Project Crypto
This week, the SEC announced an ambitious new initiative called 'Project Crypto', in which they plan to make America the global leader in digital assets.
Instead of the previous "regulation by enforcement" approach that drove crypto companies overseas, SEC Chair Paul Atkins wants to create clear, simple rules that actually help the industry grow.
Here are the core concepts:
Modernizing Regulations: The project's primary goal is to update outdated securities laws to better accommodate on-chain financial markets.
Providing Clarity: It aims to create clear definitions to help market participants categorize digital assets, such as collectibles, commodities, or stablecoins, to determine whether they qualify as securities.
Supporting Innovation: The SEC plans to offer "fast-track exemptions" and grace periods for new projects to encourage innovation without the immediate burden of heavy regulation.
Protecting Self-Custody: For the first time at a federal level, the initiative explicitly supports and provides stronger legal protection for users who manage their own assets through private wallets.
Streamlining Operations: The project will explore enabling "super-apps," which would allow platforms to offer a wide range of financial services, like trading, staking, and lending, under a single license.
So, all in, the goal is to bring financial markets "on-chain" and give crypto businesses the regulatory clarity they've been desperately asking for.
This seems mega-bullish for crypto, long term, but based on the way price has been behaving since the news, perhaps it was priced in already. Time will tell.
Moonit and BAGSapp Go Live
The Launchpad Wars welcomed two new entrants into the space this week: Memeland's MoonIt and the BAGS app.
Moonit
Moonit's claim to fame is that it automatically turns viral memes into SOL tokens. Launched in partnership with 9GAG (the massive meme platform with over 200 million users), Moonit's "Meme Money Markets" uses AI to monitor viral content and instantly tokenize memes that hit certain popularity thresholds based on likes, shares, and engagement.
The process is completely autonomous—no developers or pre-sales needed—which means the market directly reflects the cultural impact of memes in real-time.
$JUGS was an early leader on launch day, but is now trading well off its highs and is consolidating in the $2m market cap range.
BAGS
What makes BAGS unique is its innovative Twitter integration that lets users launch coins directly from Twitter by simply tagging @LaunchOnBags in a tweet. This "getting bagged" feature allows anyone to create a token on someone's behalf and share up to 90% of the trading fees with the Twitter user being tagged, while the launcher keeps 10%.
An early leader on the platform is Team Water Coin, which has positioned itself directly with Mr. Beast's Team Water project by donating fees generated from the trading of the coin directly to the project.
Currently, $WATER is the number one community on the TeamWater leaderboard after raising over $80K in 24 hours. It's a pretty impressive hack to get eyes on both the coin and the launcher, I must say.
That's all for us this week! If you have any questions or want me to dig into any coins or narratives in future Spotlights, feel free to shoot me a message at Jasonk@spot.dog.
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